China's agricultural sector showed mixed signals in the first three quarters of 2026, with significant implications for animal feed markets. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, corn prices—a key animal feed ingredient—rose 3.3% year over year, while overall agricultural producer prices declined 2.4%.
Livestock production expanded 4.3% overall, with pork output increasing 3.2% and poultry meat surging 9.3%. However, live-hog prices fell sharply by 22.1% year over year, reflecting market pressures despite production growth. The breeding-sow herd contracted 10.7% to 36.02 million head by end-Q3.
In grain production, summer-grain output rose 0.7% to 301.49 billion jin, though early-rice fell 0.8%. Autumn harvest conditions remain favorable, supporting expectations for a strong full-year harvest.
At end-September, farm-market prices were generally steady, with livestock and poultry prices mostly rising but pork prices remaining lower. The divergence between robust poultry meat output (up 9.3%) and declining egg production (down 1.7%) highlights sector-specific dynamics.
Overall, rising feed ingredient costs (particularly corn) are occurring alongside depressed hog prices, presenting a challenging margin environment for producers reliant on feed-intensive livestock operations.
